Tesla’s shares plummeted in a dramatic sell-off, dropping approximately 38% year-to-date as mid-April 2025 figures reveal the electric vehicle giant’s worst performance in years. The company’s Q1 deliveries of 336,681 units represent a 13% decline from the previous year, marking the weakest quarterly delivery numbers in three years.
Production figures similarly disappointed at 362,000 units, down 16% year-over-year, falling well short of market expectations. Revenue projections tell an equally concerning story. Consensus estimates place Q1 2025 revenue at $21.81 billion, a substantial sequential drop from Q4 2024’s $27.2 billion. Earnings per share are expected to decline to $0.43 from $0.74 in the previous quarter. These financial metrics suggest a company experiencing significant headwinds.
Tesla’s production and revenue numbers paint a grim picture of mounting challenges for the EV pioneer.
Technical analysis reveals a precarious position for Tesla’s stock. Key resistance levels hover around $290.00-$290.55, while downside support sits at $269.56, with further risk to $237.34. The 58% Fibonacci retracement from recent lows indicates potential for additional declines.
Analyst sentiment remains divided with 13 “buy,” 10 “sell,” and 12 “hold” ratings. Morningstar’s “narrow moat” designation suggests Tesla’s competitive advantages are limited, a concerning assessment in an increasingly crowded EV market where established automakers are rapidly closing the technology gap.
CEO Elon Musk’s controversial public profile and political associations have contributed to investor unrest. His alignment with polarizing figures and apparent distraction with ventures outside Tesla have amplified concerns about leadership focus during this critical period. BYD’s introduction of free AI-powered driving assistance has further compromised Tesla’s competitive positioning in the market.
The broader EV market faces challenges too. Consumer demand shows signs of erosion in major markets, while macroeconomic factors including rising interest rates have reduced vehicle affordability. The company has implemented aggressive cost-cutting measures to maintain profitability despite declining sales volumes. Tesla’s struggles come amid intense competition, particularly from BYD which now leads EV sales with 1.1 million units sold in 2025.
Price forecasts reflect extreme uncertainty, with 12-month targets ranging from $24.86 to $550. Analysts cite a fair value estimate of $250, suggesting the stock remains overvalued despite recent declines.
Though five-year projections suggest potential recovery by 2030, near-term volatility appears inevitable as Tesla navigates this perfect storm of internal challenges and market headwinds.
